wlf-063 Day 2 | Why Villager Contribution in Werewolf is so Important

Replay

You are viewing day 2 of a game of werewolv.es started on the 19-Jun-17 Mon on a 24 hour cycle (12h day, 12h night).

This is a spoiler free version, use the user button (top menu) to see who was alive at the time, and the calendar button or links below the chat to navigate through to different days.

You can play a game of online Mafia by joining the game currently in sign up. New players are welcome, but try to be active!
Calypso Tue 08:02

Guten morgen
Tue 08:03

Am i a pirate too
Tue 08:03

I don't watch poc :-;
Mullroy Tue 08:04

Hello
Tue 08:04

Idk if you’re a pirate
Calypso Tue 08:05

Don't do piracy kids
Mullroy Tue 08:05

Lmao
Tue 08:06

I don’t think I’m a pirate
Calypso Tue 08:06

Never illegally download
Tue 08:06

Yeah you're a colonizer >:c
Tue 08:06

Never illegally download
Tue 08:22
Regatti Tue 08:31

Yarr yarrrr
Tue 08:31

Hello you landrrrrats
Murtogg Tue 08:36

Good morning
Tue 08:43

Not much to go on so far - only 1 night kill means it's very likely AW still has their double kill
Scrum Tue 08:55

Good morning
Mullroy Tue 09:23

Hello
Murtogg Tue 09:53

My and Mullroy avatars are annoyingly similar
Tue 09:53

Also: what's a pirate's favourite cheese?
Calypso Tue 09:57

Cheddarrr
Scrum Tue 10:00

Garrrgonzola
Tue 10:00

Yar-lsberg.
Murtogg Tue 10:04

All correct answers!
Tue 10:07

I'm not sure there's much to be said at this point, but do we agree that claiming is a bad idea this early on when there are so few intel roles?
Calypso Tue 10:15

I agree with that sentiment
Tue 10:15

Our enemies are shapeshifters and alpha which is terribly messy if we're gonna claim early
Sparrow Tue 10:43

Arr
Tue 10:44

Yarr
Blackbeard Tue 12:29

Yo ho ho
Tue 12:30

A pirates life for me
Tue 12:30

Should we do full claim?
Tue 12:30

6 villagers might not be wise to do this
Tue 12:30

I think we do lynch however
Tue 12:31

alphawolf hasn't yet fired
Tue 12:32

we are not likely to hit a power role
Moderator Tue 12:32

Blackbeard votes to lynch Mullroy
Blackbeard Tue 12:32

Random choice
Tue 12:33

Discuss
Regatti Tue 12:35

I actually think we could claim
Tue 12:36

Mullroy said "there's agreement that we shouldnt" which I don't agree with
Blackbeard Tue 12:37

Yes I dont accept there is agreement, but my view is claiming isn't great
Tue 12:37

there are only two power roles
Tue 12:37

wolves will just claim vanilla
Tue 12:38

then we have potentially 7-8 vanilla claims and two power roles sitting out as targets
Tue 12:39

I am usually against lynching when the odds are so heavily stacked towards mislynching, however in this case where we are much more likely to hit a vanilla with a mislynch than a power role, I would say it makes the end game easier for those who survive
Tue 12:39

basically we need to thin the herd for when people do claim and now is the time to do that
Tue 12:40

and the power roles need to do everything they can to avoid giving away their role
Tue 12:40

only time to do so would be if seer finds a wolf
Regatti Tue 12:41

there are 2 wolves
Tue 12:41

parity is at 4
Blackbeard Tue 12:41

correct
Tue 12:41

we dont have a lot of time
Regatti Tue 12:41

I'd say 3 days
Blackbeard Tue 12:41

this is going to swing one way or the other very fast
Tue 12:41

i think our best shot is shooting in the dark and trying to hit a wolf
Tue 12:42

if we don't we will probably lose anyway
Tue 12:42

it also narrows down seer targets
Tue 12:42

it started out 8 villager, 2 wolves
Tue 12:42

we're now at 7/2
Tue 12:43

assume we mislynch we'd be at 6/2
Tue 12:43

they alpha and it's 4/2
Tue 12:43

we mislynch again and we lose the next night if they don't hit protection
Tue 12:43

This is going to be a very quick game
Moderator Tue 12:43

Regatti votes to lynch Mullroy
Blackbeard Tue 12:43

Alternative is that we do nothing and hope to give the seer 1-2 chances to find a wolf
Tue 12:43

which may be better now i think about it
Regatti Tue 12:44

we talk about 3 nights?
Tue 12:44

max?
Tue 12:44

so if we don't lynch there's a 2/6 chance for a wolf
Blackbeard Tue 12:44

probably, with lynches. If we don't lynch it's 6/2 tomorrow, 5/2 the day after, 4/2 the day after that then 3/2 after that, then we have to lynch a wolf twice in a row
Tue 12:45

so actually
Tue 12:45

we might want to just not lynch at all this game until the seer finds a wolf
Regatti Tue 12:45

2/6 over 3 nights would be a decent chance
Blackbeard Tue 12:45

if the seer dies we are in trouble
Regatti Tue 12:45

yeah
Blackbeard Tue 12:45

but nothing we can do about that
Tue 12:45

yeah i think our best shot is give the seer 2-3 nights to find a wolf
Tue 12:46

after that we should probably start taking pot-shots for the reasons i gave initially
Tue 12:49

Thats my thinking anyway, see what other people think
Tue 12:50

If we lynch we give the seer possibly 2 nights
Tue 12:50

if we dont we give them 3
Tue 12:50

assuming the alpha wolf enrages
Tue 12:51

it's whether we want to take a complete 1 in 4 ish chance of hitting a wolf or not at the risk of losing one more night for the seer
Regatti Tue 12:51

question is how high is the chance of the seer dying
Tue 12:52

or how long you coul dprotect the seer
Tue 12:52

I mean with 3 nights, depending on how you gamble
Blackbeard Tue 12:52

each night the seer is increasingly likely to die
Tue 12:52

if they are not dead already
Murtogg Tue 12:53

The chance of the seer dying last night was 1/8. Tonight is 1/7 if we don't lynch
Blackbeard Tue 12:53

yes - though they also have enrage
Regatti Tue 12:53

well if we lynch wrong it goes down to 1/6
Tue 12:53

1/5 even
Tue 12:53

with alpha
Blackbeard Tue 12:54

it's 1/3
Tue 12:54

with alpha
Tue 12:54

1/6 * 1/5
Regatti Tue 12:54

that's not good
Blackbeard Tue 12:55

so then do we have the seer reveal tomorrow and have them protected one night
Regatti Tue 12:55

I think with a bit of gambling you can get 2 out of it
Blackbeard Tue 12:55

take the chance tonight, reveal tomorrow
Tue 12:55

prot protects
Regatti Tue 12:55

Meh I wont, yolo
Tue 12:55

It'se me Mario
Tue 12:56

Prot gimme 2 nights, thanks
Blackbeard Tue 12:56

hmm okay
Tue 12:56

so yes prot dont reveal
Tue 12:56

choose to protect tonight or not
Murtogg Tue 12:56

Just to be explicit, Regatti you're claiming seer?
Regatti Tue 12:56

yeah, let the wolves gamble, I mean if it goes wrong what ever. This game due to it's length feels a bit like a tossup anyway
Tue 12:57

ye
Blackbeard Tue 12:57

who did you check last night
Murtogg Tue 12:57

Do we want to know that now?
Regatti Tue 12:57

I'm not sure if I should tell yet, makes shifting quite easy if they're not active :/
Blackbeard Tue 12:57

yes why not
Regatti Tue 12:57

it's a perfect shift target
Blackbeard Tue 12:57

mmm i guess but if you die tonight we dont know
Regatti Tue 12:57

that's the problem
Murtogg Tue 12:57

I think it's more helpful tomorrow
Regatti Tue 12:57

I think 1 more night
Murtogg Tue 12:58

It would just give the wolves an easy target tonight, with or without a shift
Regatti Tue 12:58

gives us probably 3 lit people with 8 remaining
Blackbeard Tue 12:58

well here's the other thing
Tue 12:58

you've now revealed
Tue 12:58

assuming you are uncontested
Tue 12:58

you + 1 confirmed village
Tue 12:58

means the odds of us lynching a wolf blindly are better
Tue 12:58

and no risk of hitting you
Regatti Tue 12:59

I like you blacky
Blackbeard Tue 12:59

if the prot reveals uncontested, that makes it 3 villagers, 2 wolves
Tue 12:59

suddenly our odds look good
Tue 12:59

they would still have to choose who to kill tonight and make it a gamble
Regatti Tue 13:00

gimme one more night and we do pressuring tomorrow
Blackbeard Tue 13:00

if they hit protection they give us another day, if they kill a villager it narrows down the pool
Regatti Tue 13:00

I wouldn't have revealed if us two wouldn't stick out like crazy today with the whole talk
Blackbeard Tue 13:00

yeah the only problem would be they would probably kill your confirmed village check
Salazar Tue 13:01

Heyho, guess who is here, the undeads will rise and we will get our revenge on Jack Sparrow.
Blackbeard Tue 13:01

so i guess we wait one more night? I dunno - even without the prot revealing today it feels like we should lynch
Regatti Tue 13:01

supp Salazy
Murtogg Tue 13:01

That's why I think it's better to wait 1 more day
Blackbeard Tue 13:01

because presumably if we are lynching the prot, they will say
Regatti Tue 13:01

I'm torn
Tue 13:01

I honestly like early stuff going on
Blackbeard Tue 13:01

i think today is our best shot at getting a wolf
Regatti Tue 13:01

I like active day 2's
Tue 13:01

on the other hand we have little to no margin this game
Tue 13:02

I want to hear others opinions on this
Murtogg Tue 13:02

It's up to you, personally I think wait one more night but it gives more chance for things to go wrong
Regatti Tue 13:02

today or tomorrow lynch
Tue 13:02

speak up
Tue 13:02

discussion and stuff
Tue 13:03

DON'T LET THIS BE ANOTHER SHITE WLF GAME
Tue 13:03

step up!
Blackbeard Tue 13:03

one idea could be that you reveal two people - one is your confirmed check and the other a random, they don't know which is which to kill so it's 50/50 again
Regatti Tue 13:03

hmmm
Tue 13:03

I see I see
Blackbeard Tue 13:03

the random might be a wolf
Tue 13:03

but worth a shot
Regatti Tue 13:03

well if I get a wolf
Tue 13:03

they know^^
Tue 13:03

as you said :D
Blackbeard Tue 13:03

yeah but this is a high risk high reward game
Tue 13:04

if we can minimise our risks as best we can
Tue 13:04

i think we can give ourselves the best shot at getting a wolf today
Salazar Tue 13:04

We have one day where balance is better, I prefer to use that day now. If we lynch today, then sooner or later we have to balance on a day to increase the odds of a wolf lynch on the following day. Or you want to lynch now to reduce number of people for faster seer checks?
Tue 13:05

Unless the alpha gets lynched today, then we dont have any day where we have to balance and we can just lynch everyday.
Regatti Tue 13:05

Do we actually gain a day if we don't lynch?
Tue 13:05

my math sucks
Salazar Tue 13:05

But prot can protect and make this math unreliable so idk
Blackbeard Tue 13:05

So let's just say you were to reveal 2 people, one of which is confirmed. We then lynch from the other 6 people - thats a 1 in 3 chance of finding a wolf. If we are voting the protector, they speak up and it goes down to 1 in 2 - if we don't hear from the protector we can assume they are not being voted and therefore is safer
Tue 13:06

at night they have a 50/50 on killing you, 50/50 on the protector if they reveal and 50/50 on your revealed target - who might also be protected
Regatti Tue 13:06

problem is
Tue 13:07

they can alpha on the 2 people I "cleared"
Blackbeard Tue 13:07

if they kill none of those targets they are forced to kill from the rest of the pool, which makes it narrower for them
Regatti Tue 13:07

then we're back to 1 confirmed yesterday
Blackbeard Tue 13:07

right but with a smaller pool
Regatti Tue 13:07

hmmm
Tue 13:07

true
Blackbeard Tue 13:07

then they have killed 2 non power roles
Regatti Tue 13:07

they good thing is
Blackbeard Tue 13:07

alternatively they can kill one PR and one confirmed
Regatti Tue 13:08

they got no BH, they can't know if they hit prot
Murtogg Tue 13:08

It's not quite a 1 in 3 chance of finding a wolf, as the person Regatti picks could be a wolf
Blackbeard Tue 13:08

yes murtogg
Tue 13:08

and the odds of that are 1 in 7
Tue 13:08

2 in 7 sorry
Tue 13:09

I dunno, I feel like revealing the prot, 2 people (one of which is confirmed) and the seer means we have a very good chance at killing a wolf
Tue 13:09

It's also not entirely blind - Regatti can use the way people have been talking to see if anyone feels sus
Tue 13:09

when choosing his fake reveal
Regatti Tue 13:09

This is quite interesting today I have to say :D
Blackbeard Tue 13:10

it'll be at best 2 in 5 of lynching a wolf, at worst 1 in 5
Tue 13:10

and it gives you the best odds of surviing the night
Salazar Tue 13:10

Talking is always good in a game with shifts^^
Regatti Tue 13:11

yeah so talk Salazar
Salazar Tue 13:11

*talks*
Tue 13:11

Is that good :p
Regatti Tue 13:12

thanks
Salazar Tue 13:12

I want to lynch Sparrow purely for rp
Blackbeard Tue 13:14

I definitely think we lynch today, with the reveal system I suggested - because if we lynch a villager it narrows down the seer check pool as well
Tue 13:15

hitting vanilla is not entirely bad
Murtogg Tue 13:15

The advantage of doing this now is that we've got an okay chance of getting a wolf on day 1 (which we can't confirm, there's no GD). We wait until tomorrow, the benefit is that we will have best case 3/8 confirmed people (Regatti plus two checks). Worse case if we wait is one of Regatti's checks is killed, which then basically put us a day behind
Tue 13:16

Give me a minute, I'm going to switch to laptop
Blackbeard Tue 13:22

the odds are 1 in 42,102,358,181,513 of me not getting an erection over d2 mathing
Tue 13:22

fyi
Tue 13:22

pretty low
Regatti Tue 13:22

too much info
Tue 13:23

the question is if we even get the votes off no lynch to do something useful
Blackbeard Tue 13:23

worth a try imo
Tue 13:23

I honestly think this is our best shot - we either hit a wolf or hit a vanilla, which reduces the pool they hide in AND reduces the seer-check pool
Regatti Tue 13:24

I even thhink Mullroy is a decent choice
Tue 13:24

hah
Blackbeard Tue 13:24

I noticed since you are voting for him
Tue 13:25

wasn't going to say but I guess it's obvious now he isn't the person you checked as village
Regatti Tue 13:25

hah
Blackbeard Tue 13:25

I think we have to do this before the AW enrage
Tue 13:26

They would be forced to choose between you, a prot, and 2 confirmed - saving any 2 of those would be good, potential for saving 3
Tue 13:26

one of the confirmed could be a wolf ofc
Tue 13:26

but that would be a d3 discussion
Tue 13:27

There is 6 hours 30 minutes left of the day
Tue 13:27

I think that's enough time to give a narrow pool of 5 people from whom we lynch
Regatti Tue 13:27

Murts?
Blackbeard Tue 13:28

Actually, one minor change
Tue 13:28

We don't want the prot to reveal, unless we are targetting them for lynch
Tue 13:28

if we call for them to reveal and they don't then the wolves know they are dead already
Tue 13:28

and can safely kill you
Salazar Tue 13:29

I prefer Sparrow lynch for rp reasons, he is at fault I am a cursed undead afterall. I need revenge. But I am also fine with Mullroy lynch.
Blackbeard Tue 13:29

the reason i picked mullroy wasn't entirely random
Regatti Tue 13:29

hah
Tue 13:30

who would have thought
Blackbeard Tue 13:30

they were speaking early in the day, which can be an indication they just finished talking in a night chat
Tue 13:30

not conclusive by any means
Regatti Tue 13:30

For me it was more like for talkings sake
Blackbeard Tue 13:30

but if im taking a random shot, mightaswell be based on something
Salazar Tue 13:30

I dont think that the time of talking has any meaning. It heavily depends on your timezone. Not so much if you are evil or good
Blackbeard Tue 13:31

sure, but if im choosing randomly then why not choose that in case they are in the EU timezone
Regatti Tue 13:32

for me it felt more like Mull was doing his duty of talking for the day
Moderator Tue 13:32

Blackbeard votes to lynch Mullroy
Blackbeard Tue 13:33

So another way of doing this is that Regatti picks the lynch target as he knows who he didn't check
Tue 13:33

that is similar to revealling two except that it doesn't give the wolves that dilemma at night
Moderator Tue 13:33

Salazar votes to lynch Mullroy
Regatti Tue 13:34

If it would be Mull I'd be quite an idiot :D
Tue 13:34

let's hear from him
Salazar Tue 13:35

This is 4d chess. You are lynching your villager check to see who the wolves are as they would be ok with a village lynch. Then 1h before nightfall if he is about to get lynched with enough votes you reveal he is village and you pray there are enough people onling to change votes to your wolf read who just jumped on the village lynch :p
Blackbeard Tue 13:37

Yes I was thinking that Salazar
Regatti Tue 13:38

my chess skills stop at scholar's mate
Calypso Tue 13:39

Aight so it's finally alive
Tue 13:39

What's up
Blackbeard Tue 13:40

A lively discussion about best strategy
Calypso Tue 13:40

We're lynching mullroy?
Blackbeard Tue 13:40

You'd be better off reading a bit
Tue 13:40

Before you do though
Tue 13:40

how do you feel about that lynch?
Calypso Tue 13:40

I read em although i might missed some chitchat
Tue 13:41

I think the idea of lynching and making seer check pool smaller is clever, but also risky
Tue 13:42

I personally would go for allowing the seer to check for another night
Blackbeard Tue 13:42

Problem is the seer is already out
Calypso Tue 13:42

wait whamt
Blackbeard Tue 13:42

so they might die tonight
Regatti Tue 13:43

na I probably will get 1 more night :D
Tue 13:43

I hope so
Tue 13:43

he he
Murtogg Tue 13:43

The chances of the prot being dead already/having protected seer n1 are low
Blackbeard Tue 13:43

I really think you're dead tonight tbh
Tue 13:43

well maybe
Calypso Tue 13:43

That's cute so
Tue 13:43

Yeah prot on the seer ��
Tue 13:44

So we only get two checks max this game
Tue 13:44

what a blam
Blackbeard Tue 13:44

Possibly three if the prot fakes protection tonight
Murtogg Tue 13:45

I think we were unlikely to get more than 2 checks anyway to be honest
Tue 13:45

The longer the seer waits to reveal, the higher the chance their checks or they themselves are killed
Calypso Tue 13:46

Why did i think you're mullroy
Tue 13:46

confused myself there
Murtogg Tue 13:46

Mullroy has spoken today, but basically all they've said is hello
Tue 13:47

Is that more or less sus than someone who hasn't spoken at all?
Tue 13:47

Yeah, I said earlier that myself and Mullroy are easily confused
Tue 13:47

Guess lynching them would solve that problem...
Blackbeard Tue 13:48

This is why i think we lynch today - with the seer revealing one real villager and one fake check that's 3 people out of contention. We then have 6 people to choose from, where there might be one - or if we are lucky - two wolves. Of those people we can judge who has been talking and pick the likeliest wolf. If we hit a wolf, great - if we hit a villager then we have reduced the pool of targets the seer has to check PLUS the pool of vanillas they can hide in tomorrow. If we are targetting the protector they claim and we change - if the wolves CC then we have found a wolf anyway. At night the wolves then have to choose between attempting to kill the seer, a 50/50 on revealed villager check or the prot if they are revealed.
Tue 13:49

We only get one shot at this because they might shift tonight and will probably enrage
Tue 13:49

Today is our best chance, in my opinion
Murtogg Tue 13:52

My main concern is if we do this today and mislynch (when we have the highest chance of mislynching) and the enrage happens tonight (which I think is likely) there will be 6 people 2 wolves tomorrow. We mislynch again and it's game over. So doing this today means we have to be confident we will get a wolf either today or tomorrow
Blackbeard Tue 13:54

So if we mislynch today the wolves have to decide - do they want to narrow down the remaining pool even further by enraging on villagers or take the risk of hitting protection - or take the risk of killing the wrong one of Regatti's fake checks.
Tue 13:54

They will be enraging anyway
Tue 13:54

regardless of what we do
Tue 13:55

I think at least this way we might have a relatively decent chance of hitting the alpha - thus preventing that - or the SS and preventing shifting
Tue 13:55

This game is going to be short no matter what
Tue 13:55

I think we have to be bold and take a risk
Tue 13:55

otherwise we stall and probably lose
Calypso Tue 13:58

I think Blackbeard has changed my mind on taling risks
Murtogg Tue 13:58

Not lynching today means the game definitely can't end tomorrow. But I think you're right, it doesn't necessarily give us more info - there's a good chance one of the seer's checks may die. I'm not convinced that Mullroy is definitely the best choice
Calypso Tue 13:58

*taking
Moderator Tue 13:58

Murtogg votes to lynch Scrum
Calypso Tue 13:58

Why not murtogg?
Murtogg Tue 13:58

This is currently a random choice
Tue 13:59

On someone who hasn't spoken yet
Tue 13:59

Why murtogg?
Calypso Tue 13:59

I mean
Salazar Tue 13:59

You are murtogg
Calypso Tue 13:59

Why not lynch mullroy, murtohg
Tue 13:59

don't you want him dead
Murtogg Tue 14:00

I have no opinion on Mullroy yet
Tue 14:00

So I am not voting for him to try and encourage a bit of discussion as to who would be the best person to go for
Calypso Tue 14:00

I see
Murtogg Tue 14:01

This also means my vote is no longer on no lynch, so we are less likely to be blocked from lynching that way
Blackbeard Tue 14:01

Personally, and I know I'm a broken record here, I think we should be doing this with a narrower pool
Calypso Tue 14:01

Regatti is clearly not a choice unless someone counters
Moderator Tue 14:01

Calypso votes to lynch Sparrow
Blackbeard Tue 14:01

i.e the seer should give two people - one of whom is a confirmed villager and one who isnt
Calypso Tue 14:01

Blackbeard doesn't sound like a wolf
Murtogg Tue 14:01

Blackbeard - given that we're doing this a narrower pool makes more sense, but only Regatti can decide whether to give us that or not
Blackbeard Tue 14:02

Yes
Tue 14:03

And he has to decide whether his fake check is one of the more "legit" people who has been involved in this discussion - as picking them means less likely to pick a wolf as their fake check, thus increasing the chances wolves are in the pool of contention - but that also takes out more lit-seeming people from that pool, making the final decision harder
Salazar Tue 14:03

Problem with that approach is that if one of those 2 clears is a wolf then wolves know the cleared person :p
Blackbeard Tue 14:03

yes, it's a risk
Tue 14:03

but that is what this is all about
Tue 14:03

risk and reward
Tue 14:04

I'll talk more about that tomorrow, if I am alive
Murtogg Tue 14:06

We currently have Sparrow: 1 (Calypso), Scrum: 1 (Murtogg), Mullroy: 3 (Regatti, Blackbeard, Salazar), No Lynch: 3 (Scrum, Mullroy, Sparrow), Not Voted: 1 (Elizabeth)
Blackbeard Tue 14:06

Obviously there is the remote chance that Regatti is a wolf who took a massive gamble on killing the seer last night and claimed it - hoping that if the real seer is alive they would CC, survive the day and shift
Tue 14:06

Just putting that out there
Tue 14:07

Not my current belief, but possible
Tue 14:07

I think we have to disregard the remotest possibilities because we don't have the luxury of time
Calypso Tue 14:07

That's kinda a hard gamble for wolves
Blackbeard Tue 14:07

and go with the balance of probability
Murtogg Tue 14:07

Seems unlikely
Calypso Tue 14:07

True
Blackbeard Tue 14:07

It does seem unlikely
Scrum Tue 14:07

Except I have talked today
Blackbeard Tue 14:07

But I wanted to mention it, just in case
Calypso Tue 14:08

Hey scrum, got news for us?
Blackbeard Tue 14:08

Naturally you should also be considering that I am a wolf who is trying to exclude myself from the pool of contention by appearing as lit as possible
Murtogg Tue 14:08

Yes, sorry Scrum, you did answer my joke!
Blackbeard Tue 14:08

again, I'm not, but people should be thinking about these things
Scrum Tue 14:08

The 50/50 seer info just waters down what we get so is silly
Blackbeard Tue 14:09

How do you mean, Scrum?
Calypso Tue 14:09

To be honest blackbeard you seem litter than the seer itself
Regatti Tue 14:09

tzzz
Calypso Tue 14:09

I'd laugh imagining the wolf trying to shift into you
Blackbeard Tue 14:10

I would be a good target to be fair - I have a fairly generic way of talking
Regatti Tue 14:10

I'd take the bet, but well
Scrum Tue 14:11

Playing a numbers game to out the only power roles D2 is a perfect wolf play
Blackbeard Tue 14:11

But to counter against that possibility you need to ask me tomorrow about what I said at 13:22 today - and if I can't answer, I have been shifted
Tue 14:11

Just so you know
Tue 14:11

I have a little insurance there
Calypso Tue 14:11

To be fair regatti outed himself
Blackbeard Tue 14:12

Lynch me if I cannot give a good explanation as to what the odds I gave at 13:22 are
Scrum Tue 14:13

Because text archives for each day aren't available anymore?
Blackbeard Tue 14:14

What do you mean?
Scrum Tue 14:14

Oh wait, they still are
Murtogg Tue 14:14

No scrum he's saying if he can't explain where the big number came from
Tue 14:14

Nvm
Blackbeard Tue 14:14

Yes if tomorrow I cannot adequately explain that number - and the explanation is very adequate let me assure you - lynch me
Tue 14:14

as i have been shifted
Scrum Tue 14:14

We can't think up a random reason for the number overnight?
Blackbeard Tue 14:14

Good luck
Tue 14:15

"we"
Calypso Tue 14:15

mhmmmmmm
Scrum Tue 14:15

Any of us
Murtogg Tue 14:15

42,102,358,181,513 is quite specific tbf
Blackbeard Tue 14:15

Yes
Calypso Tue 14:16

could have just made an avengers reference but didn't smhsmh
Blackbeard Tue 14:16

And if I can't say exactly what it is, with proof, then I am not me
Tue 14:16

and I have been shifted
Calypso Tue 14:16

That's cool
Tue 14:16

I doubt the wolf would shift into me so ��
Scrum Tue 14:17

I hope you have one of those for every day
Blackbeard Tue 14:18

I can just make another tomorrow
Tue 14:18

With an entirely different premise
Tue 14:18

Scrum is very confrontational
Tue 14:18

Consdiering I'm giving something quite beneficial for the village
Tue 14:19

Shift-insurance
Calypso Tue 14:21

Sparrow only comes in to say arr and yarr and voted today
Tue 14:21

thonk
Tue 14:22

he vote and yote, is that suspicious enough
Blackbeard Tue 14:22

For me Scrum is being weirder
Tue 14:22

But I would rather we did this from a narrower pool
Murtogg Tue 14:24

It's possible Blackbeard could be a wolf who's concocted the whole "lynch someone on d2" thing so that it's one fewer villager for them to worry about. We get two mislynches max so lynching on d2 when we have the most to choose from is a risk
Tue 14:24

On the other hand, I'm not sure that there is much benefit to waiting another day
Blackbeard Tue 14:24

You are correct, I could be
Calypso Tue 14:24

Well, considering Blackbeard could be a wolf,
Blackbeard Tue 14:25

It is definitely something I would do as a wolf
Calypso Tue 14:25

How about not let him choose the lynchee
Tue 14:25

since he's the one suggesting it
Blackbeard Tue 14:25

Seems fair
Murtogg Tue 14:25

I guess that helps
Blackbeard Tue 14:25

I am happy for that to be the case but i would like the seer to rule out two people first
Calypso Tue 14:25

True
Tue 14:26

Regatti cmere
Blackbeard Tue 14:26

I think Regatti has to choose it
Tue 14:26

the least likely wolf at the moment
Tue 14:26

otherwise we could be letting a wolf from the pool choose it
Murtogg Tue 14:26

I think Regatti should certainly have some input
Regatti Tue 14:28

Scrum is a bit too confrontational for my taste to lynch
Blackbeard Tue 14:33

What do you think about him saying "we" couldn't think up a way to break my shifter code?
Tue 14:37

Scrum Tue 14:14 We can't think up a random reason for the number overnight?
Scrum Tue 14:38

Anyone in the game
Tue 14:38

Your defense against shifting is good. Is it required?
Blackbeard Tue 14:38

Whyw ould anyone else be trying to break the code
Tue 14:38

other than wolves
Tue 14:39

Are you implying you think I'm a wolf, therefore won't be required?
Tue 14:46

I'm happy to address the possibility of me being a wolf. Yes it is possible - just like it's possible anyone else is - but ask yourself what a wolf would be trying to achieve today? Either a lynch at random which is very likely to hit a village and speed up a wolf victory, or for the seer to reveal
Tue 14:46

The seer revealed ages ago
Tue 14:46

Since then I have been trying to narrow the pool of votes down, at the seer's choosing, to increase chances of hitting a wolf
Tue 14:46

i myself will be in that pool
Tue 14:47

So you have to ask yourself what kind of wolf doesn't just shut up when the seer reveals
Tue 14:47

Scrum just seems a little pissed off that this is what's happening is all
Regatti Tue 14:47

there was a code? :P
Blackbeard Tue 14:48

I explained earlier that if tomorrow I cannot give a specific reason that explains the number I used at 13:22 then I have been shifted and you should lynch me
Tue 14:48

the explanation will be very exact
Tue 14:48

and should compeltely satisfy you without any doubt
Regatti Tue 14:49

remember that the messages need to be "decodable" without external tools
Blackbeard Tue 14:49

I understand
Regatti Tue 14:49

other instances MAY have generated some salt in the past :P
Blackbeard Tue 14:49

You do not need google for this
Regatti Tue 14:50

also no hashing and stuff
Blackbeard Tue 14:50

nope
Regatti Tue 14:50

but I trust ya good good
Tue 14:50

about the code that is :P
Blackbeard Tue 14:51

It's entirely within the rules
Tue 14:51

Though if after the game people feel it is not within the spirit, I would refrain from doing it again
Tue 14:53

I would point out though that a wolf can also use a code to appear lit, so it doesn't exactly break shifters
Regatti Tue 14:53

I feel it's fine :P
Murtogg Tue 15:19

I also feel it's fine. I will be away from game for a couple of hours now, but will be back before nightfall to change my vote if necessary. I find Scrum's use of "we" highly suspicious (yes, I know you say you meant "we" as in "any of us", but imo it was strange wording), but if Scrum is one of the people Regatti wishes us to rule out for today then that is fine and I will move to someone else
Tue 15:19

Bye for now
Sparrow Tue 16:32

Evening all. Arrr
Tue 16:32

What's the lowdown
Tue 16:32

Yarr
Murtogg Tue 17:21

Blackboard has suggested we lynch today, ideally with Regatti (claimed seer) having ruled out a couple of people, one of whom is the person they checked n1
Tue 17:21

Blackbeard*
Tue 17:23

Currently 3 votes on Mullroy, who seemed to be selected pretty much at random for low activity/lurking, 3 on no lynch and a couple others dotted about
Tue 17:23

I think that's a fair summary but you should read through yourself
Blackbeard Tue 17:30

One thing we haven't considered is maybe the alpha did enrage and they hit a protected target
Tue 17:31

If that was the protector they know who that is and they will probably die tonight
Tue 17:31

But the good news would be, no enrage
Tue 17:31

There's no way for us to know this however
Murtogg Tue 17:39

It's possible, but unlikely
Tue 17:39

It would have required the AW and protector to have chosen the same person with very little prior info
Blackbeard Tue 18:05

Not that unlikely, the protector picks themselves and it's 1 in 7 for it to happen
Tue 18:05

You see important power roles dying first night all the time, it happens sometimes
Tue 18:06

You have to ask yourself why wouldn't they enrage asap
Tue 18:06

Like I said though, nothing we can really do about it
Tue 18:08

In fact it's even less than 1 in 8 when you factor in two chances to hit the protector, it's like 1 in 5
Tue 18:09

Really not that unlikely
Murtogg Tue 18:15

Hmmm, well I hope it has happened because it means there won't be a night with two kills
Sparrow Tue 18:16

Who hasn't voted yet?
Moderator Tue 18:17

Sparrow votes to lynch Elizabeth
Sparrow Tue 18:17

Yarr
Murtogg Tue 18:18

So currently Mullroy is being lynched
Sparrow Tue 18:22

Has Elizabeth been on at all?
Tue 18:22

Narr
Murtogg Tue 18:40

20 mins to go
Tue 18:43

Anyone worried at the lack of resistance to lynching Mullroy? There's no-one else with >1 vote
Tue 18:47

Blackbeard's original suggestion was that we lynch from a smaller pool of people suggested by the seer, which hasn't happened
Sparrow Tue 18:48

It's 9pm BST isn't it?
Tue 18:48

8pm UTC/GMT
Murtogg Tue 18:48

Oh you're right sorry
Tue 18:48

1 hr 10 mins to go
Tue 18:49

UTC confuses me
Sparrow Tue 18:49

Yarr
Murtogg Tue 18:50

Salazar seemed quite happy to jump on a Mullroy lynch without a good reason
Calypso Tue 19:17

Did regatti not give a name or two yet?
Tue 19:18

And I did say not to follow Blackbeard's lynchee
Tue 19:19

Although there's no one else we can lynch
Tue 19:19

shrugg
Tue 19:19

Unless any of you is up
Blackbeard Tue 19:28

There are only two wolves, there isn't going to be a lot of resistance
Tue 19:29

If he is a wolf then there is only one other person - and what are they going to do?
Tue 19:29

The only problem is that Mullroy hasn't been back today so can't tell us if he is the protector
Tue 19:30

The idea was we lynch someone unless they claim to be protector
Tue 19:30

But if they don't come back...
Tue 19:30

And yes it was supposed to be from a smaller pool which never happened
Tue 19:31

Which means the wolves only have one target tonight so let's hope the prot is alive
Tue 19:31

I thought it was a good plan, just a shame people didn't go for it
Salazar Tue 19:38

Murtogg, did you miss the discussion if we should lynch or not?
Tue 19:41

I think Mullroy is a good lynch. He had plenty of time to defend himself. 4h into the game he got nominated and hasnt been online since then, if he stays this inactive even if he is a villager he will be a distraction or shift target.
Mullroy Tue 19:45

Ok for one it’s called a timezone
Tue 19:46

Sorry I’m not up at 2am
Tue 19:46

And two why are we voting me?
Tue 19:51

I’m vanilla
Tue 19:51

If you’re wondering
Tue 19:51

Not prot
Moderator Tue 19:59

A new moon rises...
Moderator Wed 08:00

Dew glistens in fledgling rays of light...
Killed Wed 08:00

Scrum was killed during the night
Killed Wed 08:00

Mullroy was killed during the night

Your role: Observer

The Village

Graveyard

Spoiler free day archives